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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Reading.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Reading 1-3 at Select Car Leasing Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reading 1.71 xG and Stockport County 0.99 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Stockport County outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reading attack 1.35 / defence 0.95 against Stockport County attack 0.90 / defence 1.02, drawn from 70/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reading 54% | Draw 25% | Stockport County 21%, with Reading to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Stockport County win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reading 57%, Stockport County 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reading's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Stockport County's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Reading (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights