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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Reading and Shrewsbury share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reading and Shrewsbury finished level at 1-1 at Select Car Leasing Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reading 1.77 xG and Shrewsbury 1.00 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reading attack 1.19 / defence 0.99 against Shrewsbury attack 0.86 / defence 1.13, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reading 55% | Draw 24% | Shrewsbury 21%, with Reading to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reading 56%, Shrewsbury 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reading's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Shrewsbury's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reading 1.39 PPG, Shrewsbury 0.99 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights