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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Peterborough defy the odds to beat Reading 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Peterborough beat Reading 1-2 at Select Car Leasing Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reading 1.35 xG and Peterborough 0.89 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Peterborough outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reading attack 0.88 / defence 0.91 against Peterborough attack 0.92 / defence 1.21, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reading 47% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 25%, with Reading to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Peterborough win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reading 48%, Peterborough 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reading's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Peterborough's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Reading arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Peterborough winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Reading (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights