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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Reading cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Peterborough.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reading beat Peterborough 3-1 at Select Car Leasing Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reading 1.50 xG and Peterborough 0.86 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Reading beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reading attack 1.04 / defence 0.86 against Peterborough attack 0.91 / defence 1.13, drawn from 83/83 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reading 52% | Draw 27% | Peterborough 21%, with Reading to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reading 53%, Peterborough 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reading's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Peterborough's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reading 1.42 PPG, Peterborough 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reading win broke the near-deadlock. Reading (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Peterborough (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights