Reading vs Cambridge United – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Reading's attack rating (1.25) and Cambridge United's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Reading's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reading Win
68%
1.47
20%
5.12
12%
8.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Reading xG
Total xG
2.80
0.74
Cambridge United xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
8.15
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
13%
7.85
Win to Nil
33%
3.06
2%
64.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reading vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Reading and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Reading and 0.74 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Reading vs Cambridge United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.