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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Reading edge out Bradford 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reading beat Bradford 2-1 at Select Car Leasing Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reading 1.86 xG and Bradford 0.96 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reading attack 1.08 / defence 1.10 against Bradford attack 0.76 / defence 1.21, drawn from 79/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reading 59% | Draw 22% | Bradford 19%, with Reading to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reading 49%, Bradford 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reading's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Bradford's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reading 1.56 PPG, Bradford 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reading win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights