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Dominant Stockport County run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Port Vale.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Port Vale 0-3 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 0.97 xG and Stockport County 1.52 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Port Vale fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Stockport County outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.74 / defence 1.15 against Stockport County attack 1.23 / defence 1.02, drawn from 13/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port Vale 24% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 50%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 41%, Stockport County 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port Vale's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Stockport County's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.58 PPG, Stockport County 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights