🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Peterborough edge out Port Vale 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Peterborough beat Port Vale 0-1 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 21, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 0.86 xG and Peterborough 1.25 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Port Vale fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.58 / defence 1.12 against Peterborough attack 0.98 / defence 1.16, drawn from 19/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port Vale 26% | Draw 29% | Peterborough 45%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 42%, Peterborough 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port Vale's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Peterborough's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.46 PPG, Peterborough 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Peterborough (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights