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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

League One · Regular Season - 11

Kick-off

Sat 4 Oct 2025

15:00

Venue

Vale Park

Competition

League One

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Port Vale Win

38%

Port Vale

2.61

28%

Draw

3.55

33%

Northampton

2.99

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.2%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.9%

Home win

0 – 1

10.9%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.21

Port Vale xG

Total xG

2.32

1.11

Northampton xG

38%
28%
33%
Port ValeDrawNorthampton

2.61

38%

Home win

3.55

28%

Draw

2.99

33%

Away win

Goals Markets

67%

Over 1.5

1.49

33%

Under 1.5

3.03

41%

Over 2.5

2.44

59%

Under 2.5

1.69

20%

Over 3.5

5.00

80%

Under 3.5

1.25

9%

Over 4.5

11.11

91%

Under 4.5

1.10

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

47%

BTTS Yes

2.12

53%

BTTS No

1.89

Clean Sheet

33%

Port Vale

3.04

30%

Northampton

3.35

Win to Nil

13%

Port Vale

7.92

10%

Northampton

10.02

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.8 10.9 6.1 2.2 0.6 0.1
1 11.9 13.2 7.3 2.7 0.8 0.2
2 7.2 8.0 4.4 1.6 0.5 0.1
3 2.9 3.2 1.8 0.7 0.2
4 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.210
λ Away (xG) 1.111
Total xG 2.321
League avg home goals 1.364
League avg away goals 1.118
Port Vale attack strength 0.814
Port Vale defence strength 1.240
Northampton attack strength 0.801
Northampton defence strength 1.089
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 10 / 55