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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Port Vale defy the odds to beat Mansfield Town 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port Vale beat Mansfield Town 2-1 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 9, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.14 xG and Mansfield Town 1.34 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Port Vale beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.72 / defence 1.32 against Mansfield Town attack 0.97 / defence 1.09, drawn from 8/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port Vale 32% | Draw 27% | Mansfield Town 41%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Port Vale win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 43%, Mansfield Town 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port Vale's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Mansfield Town's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.57 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights