Port Vale 0-0 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bolton at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port Vale vs Bolton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 3 as Port Vale welcome Bolton to Vale Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Port Vale — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Port Vale have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Vale Park, Port Vale have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Port Vale are significantly better at Vale Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Bolton have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bolton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bolton away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bolton's 2.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Port Vale's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Port Vale register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bolton in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Port Vale in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Bolton in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 56% versus Bolton 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 48% | Bolton 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.21 xG and Bolton 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.949 / defence 1.116 | Bolton attack 1.051 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.067. Data: 2 Port Vale games / 48 Bolton games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Port Vale 35% | Draw 27% | Bolton 37%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Bolton 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bolton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Port Vale 60% | Bolton 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 35% | Draw 27% | Bolton 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Port Vale 1.21 / Bolton 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.949 / def 1.116 | Bolton attack 1.051 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Bolton (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Bolton xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Bolton kick off?
Port Vale vs Bolton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Bolton?
Port Vale 0 - 0 Bolton.
Where is Port Vale vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Bolton part of?
Port Vale vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 35% chance of winning, Bolton a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Port Vale and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Bolton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port Vale and Bolton in?
Port Vale (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Bolton (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Port Vale's attack at 0.95x the league average against Bolton's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Port Vale's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/48 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
35%
2.82
27%
3.67
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.47
1.25
Bolton xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
11%
9.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.25 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Port Vale's recent record stands at 25W 10D 13L from 48 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Port Vale, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bolton, meanwhile, have gone 22W 11D 15L across 48 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bolton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port Vale on 1.77 PPG, Bolton on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Port Vale have managed 13W 4D 6L from 23 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bolton's away record stands at 9W 3D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Port Vale are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.62 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 48 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Early Season
Bolton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Bolton in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 25W 10D 13L in their last 48 games (1.77 PPG), while Bolton have gone 22W 11D 15L in their last 48 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Bolton away?
Port Vale's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.87 PPG; Bolton away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bolton in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Port Vale and Bolton runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2025, when Bolton won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port Vale's record when hosting Bolton specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Port Vale
1
Draws
4
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Bolton?
From 6 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 1, Bolton have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Port Vale 1-0 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 52%, Bolton 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Port Vale) and 44% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Bolton in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Bolton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Port Vale's recent matches and 44% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Port Vale's recent games and 44% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Bolton tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bolton in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Port Vale's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vale Park, Regular Season - 3, as Port Vale and Bolton drew 0-0 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.21 xG and Bolton 1.25 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Port Vale fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bolton landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.95 / defence 1.12 against Bolton attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 2/48 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 35% | Draw 27% | Bolton 37%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 48%, Bolton 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bolton's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.77 PPG, Bolton 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.