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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Port Vale run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Blackpool.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port Vale beat Blackpool 5-1 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 24, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 0.56 xG and Blackpool 1.23 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Port Vale beat their projection by 4.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.51 / defence 1.09 against Blackpool attack 0.99 / defence 0.82, drawn from 22/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port Vale 17% | Draw 30% | Blackpool 53%, with Blackpool to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Port Vale win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 41%, Blackpool 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port Vale's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Blackpool's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.40 PPG, Blackpool 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Blackpool (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights