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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Plymouth and Wycombe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth and Wycombe finished level at 1-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 23, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 0.95 xG and Wycombe 1.10 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.67 / defence 1.40 against Wycombe attack 0.69 / defence 1.06, drawn from 22/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 31% | Draw 30% | Wycombe 39%, with Wycombe to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 57%, Wycombe 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Wycombe's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Wycombe arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights