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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Stockport County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat Stockport County 4-2 at Home Park, Regular Season - 7, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 0.84 xG and Stockport County 1.44 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Plymouth beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.67 / defence 1.16 against Stockport County attack 1.21 / defence 0.94, drawn from 6/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 22% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 51%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Plymouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 60%, Stockport County 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Stockport County's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Plymouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Stockport County (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights