Plymouth vs Stevenage – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plymouth host Stevenage at Home Park in League One, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 19 January 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Plymouth have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Plymouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plymouth at Home Park this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stevenage — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Stevenage have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stevenage away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Plymouth, 0 for Stevenage and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Plymouth winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 54% versus Stevenage 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 58% | Stevenage 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.49 xG and Stevenage 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.236 / defence 0.893 | Stevenage attack 1.074 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.376. Data: 52 Plymouth games / 52 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 39% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 31%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Stevenage 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 70% | Stevenage 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Jan 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 39% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Plymouth 1.49 / Stevenage 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.236 / def 0.893 | Stevenage attack 1.074 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Stevenage xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Stevenage kick off?
Plymouth vs Stevenage is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 January 2027 at Home Park.
Where is Plymouth vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Stevenage part of?
Plymouth vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 39% chance of winning, Stevenage a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Plymouth and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Stevenage?
Record (2 meetings): Plymouth 1W | Draws 1 | Stevenage 0W.
What form are Plymouth and Stevenage in?
Plymouth (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Stevenage (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Plymouth's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
39%
2.56
30%
3.39
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.81
1.32
Stevenage xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
10%
9.57
7%
14.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.32 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 25W 8D 19L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stevenage's form line: 21W 15D 16L from 52 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.60 PPG, Stevenage on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 1.54 PPG from 26 outings (12W 4D 10L).
On the road, Stevenage have gone 7W 7D 12L from 26 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.08 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Early Season
Stevenage
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 25W 8D 19L in their last 52 games (1.60 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 21W 15D 16L in their last 52 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Stevenage away?
Plymouth's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.54 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Stevenage in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Plymouth
1
Draws
0
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Stevenage?
From 2 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 1, Stevenage have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Plymouth 1-0 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Stevenage?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 58%, Stevenage 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Plymouth) and 42% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Plymouth's recent matches and 50% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Plymouth's recent games and 42% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Stevenage tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.