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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Plymouth defy the odds to beat Rotherham 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat Rotherham 1-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 20, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 0.78 xG and Rotherham 1.18 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rotherham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.67 / defence 1.31 against Rotherham attack 0.83 / defence 0.94, drawn from 19/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 24% | Draw 30% | Rotherham 45%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Plymouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 57%, Rotherham 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Rotherham's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.00 PPG, Rotherham 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights