Plymouth vs Notts County – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Notts County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Notts County travel to Home Park to take on Plymouth. The game is scheduled for Monday 29 March 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Plymouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plymouth have posted 6W 1D 3L at Home Park — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Notts County have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Notts County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Notts County's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Plymouth) versus 1.70 (Notts County). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Notts County in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 54% versus Notts County 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 56% | Notts County 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.80 xG and Notts County 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.059 / defence 1.065 | Notts County attack 0.983 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.272. Data: 50 Plymouth games / 4 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 47% | Draw 25% | Notts County 27%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Notts County 3.70. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 80% | Notts County 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Notts County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Monday 29 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 47% | Draw 25% | Notts County 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Plymouth 1.80 / Notts County 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.059 / def 1.065 | Notts County attack 0.983 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Notts County xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Notts County kick off?
Plymouth vs Notts County is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Monday 29 March 2027 at Home Park.
Where is Plymouth vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Notts County part of?
Plymouth vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 47% chance of winning, Notts County a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Plymouth and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Notts County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plymouth and Notts County in?
Plymouth (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Notts County (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 1.06x the league average against Notts County's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Notts County's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
47%
2.11
25%
3.94
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Plymouth xG
Total xG
3.13
1.33
Notts County xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
5%
22.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.33 for Notts County, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plymouth come into this having played 50 games, going 23W 8D 19L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Notts County sit at 1.84 PPG from 50 outings (27W 11D 12L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Notts County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.54 PPG, Notts County on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Plymouth's home form reads 11W 4D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Notts County have taken 1.71 points per game from 24 outings (12W 5D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.62 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 50 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Early Season
Notts County
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Notts County in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 23W 8D 19L in their last 50 games (1.54 PPG), while Notts County have gone 27W 11D 12L in their last 50 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Notts County away?
Notts County's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.54 PPG; Notts County away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Notts County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Notts County in 32%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 58%, Notts County 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Plymouth) and 50% (Notts County).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Notts County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Plymouth's recent matches and 50% of Notts County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Plymouth's recent games and 50% of Notts County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Notts County tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Notts County in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.