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Dominant Northampton run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Plymouth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Northampton beat Plymouth 0-3 at Home Park, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.03 xG and Northampton 1.06 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Plymouth fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Northampton outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.80 / defence 1.22 against Northampton attack 0.82 / defence 0.97, drawn from 16/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 34% | Draw 30% | Northampton 36%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 58%, Northampton 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Northampton's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.00 PPG, Northampton 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Northampton win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Northampton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights