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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Leyton Orient edge out Plymouth 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leyton Orient beat Plymouth 0-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 4, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.27 xG and Leyton Orient 1.60 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Plymouth fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.82 / defence 1.34 against Leyton Orient attack 1.10 / defence 1.11, drawn from 3/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 29% | Draw 27% | Leyton Orient 44%, with Leyton Orient to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 61%, Leyton Orient 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Leyton Orient's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Leyton Orient arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights