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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Huddersfield.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat Huddersfield 3-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.42 xG and Huddersfield 1.18 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Plymouth beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.00 / defence 1.19 against Huddersfield attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 38/84 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 42% | Draw 26% | Huddersfield 31%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 57%, Huddersfield 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Huddersfield's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.21 PPG, Huddersfield 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Huddersfield (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights