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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Plymouth and Exeter City share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth and Exeter City finished level at 2-2 at Home Park, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.64 xG and Exeter City 1.31 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.07 / defence 1.25 against Exeter City attack 0.94 / defence 1.11, drawn from 41/88 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 45% | Draw 24% | Exeter City 31%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 59%, Exeter City 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (87 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Exeter City's trading profile (87 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.24 PPG, Exeter City 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Exeter City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights