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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Doncaster 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat Doncaster 2-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.74 xG and Doncaster 1.34 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.00 / defence 1.32 against Doncaster attack 0.88 / defence 1.23, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 47% | Draw 23% | Doncaster 30%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 56%, Doncaster 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (79 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Doncaster's trading profile (79 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Doncaster arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Plymouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights