🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Plymouth defy the odds to beat Blackpool 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat Blackpool 1-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 5, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.14 xG and Blackpool 1.30 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Blackpool landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.70 / defence 1.27 against Blackpool attack 0.94 / defence 1.25, drawn from 4/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 32% | Draw 27% | Blackpool 40%, with Blackpool to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 60%, Blackpool 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Blackpool's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Blackpool arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Plymouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line. Blackpool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights