Plymouth 2-1 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon meet at Home Park in League One, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Plymouth's overall League One record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plymouth have posted 6W 1D 3L at Home Park — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AFC Wimbledon (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Plymouth, 1 for AFC Wimbledon and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 3–1 with Plymouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Plymouth — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
AFC Wimbledon — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 52% versus AFC Wimbledon 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 56% | AFC Wimbledon 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.73 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.096 / defence 0.919 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.818 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.336. Data: 55 Plymouth games / 54 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 53% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 20%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | AFC Wimbledon 5.00. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plymouth if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 60% | AFC Wimbledon 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 53% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Plymouth 1.73 / AFC Wimbledon 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.096 / def 0.919 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.818 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.00
AFC Wimbledon xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
Plymouth 2 - 1 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 53% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (4 meetings): Plymouth 3W | Draws 0 | AFC Wimbledon 1W.
What form are Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon in?
Plymouth (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Plymouth's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against AFC Wimbledon's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.82x) against Plymouth's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.70
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.73
1.00
AFC Wimbledon xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
4%
27.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.00 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Plymouth's recent record stands at 27W 8D 19L from 54 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Wimbledon, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 25L across 54 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plymouth by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AFC Wimbledon heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 12W 4D 10L from 26 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AFC Wimbledon's away record stands at 8W 5D 13L across 26 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plymouth are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.06 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 54 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 27W 8D 19L in their last 54 games (1.65 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 18W 11D 25L in their last 54 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Plymouth's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.54 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Plymouth have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Plymouth
0
Draws
1
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon?
From 5 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 4, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Plymouth 2-1 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 54%, AFC Wimbledon 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Plymouth) and 58% (AFC Wimbledon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Plymouth's recent matches and 50% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Plymouth's matches and 58% of AFC Wimbledon's.
Do Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out AFC Wimbledon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat AFC Wimbledon 2-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.73 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.00 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.10 / defence 0.92 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.82 / defence 1.15, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 53% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 20%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 56%, AFC Wimbledon 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.