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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Peterborough defy the odds to beat Wycombe 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Peterborough beat Wycombe 2-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 0.96 xG and Wycombe 1.10 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 0.75 / defence 1.12 against Wycombe attack 0.96 / defence 0.90, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 31% | Draw 30% | Wycombe 39%, with Wycombe to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Peterborough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Wycombe 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Wycombe's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Wycombe arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Peterborough winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wycombe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights