🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Peterborough and Wycombe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 36, as Peterborough and Wycombe drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.45 xG and Wycombe 1.82 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Wycombe landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.20 / defence 1.21 against Wycombe attack 1.32 / defence 0.96, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 30% | Draw 24% | Wycombe 46%, with Wycombe to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 66%, Wycombe 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Wycombe's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.46 PPG, Wycombe 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights