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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Peterborough run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Wigan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Peterborough beat Wigan 6-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.52 xG and Wigan 1.20 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 4.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against Wigan attack 1.01 / defence 1.07, drawn from 75/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 45% | Draw 25% | Wigan 30%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Wigan 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Wigan's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.20 PPG, Wigan 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. Wigan (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights