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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Peterborough run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stockport County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Peterborough beat Stockport County 3-0 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.35 xG and Stockport County 1.67 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stockport County landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.11 / defence 1.19 against Stockport County attack 1.34 / defence 0.91, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 31% | Draw 24% | Stockport County 45%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Peterborough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 62%, Stockport County 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Stockport County's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Peterborough winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights