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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Stevenage defy the odds to beat Peterborough 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stevenage beat Peterborough 0-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.55 xG and Stevenage 1.06 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Peterborough fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.21 / defence 1.04 against Stevenage attack 0.96 / defence 0.95, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 48% | Draw 25% | Stevenage 26%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Stevenage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 63%, Stevenage 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Stevenage's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.12 PPG, Stevenage 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights