🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Peterborough cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Shrewsbury.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Peterborough beat Shrewsbury 3-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.52 xG and Shrewsbury 1.23 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.09 / defence 1.21 against Shrewsbury attack 0.88 / defence 1.08, drawn from 78/79 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 44% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 30%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 66%, Shrewsbury 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Shrewsbury's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.13 average — above their attacking norm. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights