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Dominant Peterborough run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Rotherham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Peterborough beat Rotherham 5-0 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.79 xG and Rotherham 1.04 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rotherham landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.30 / defence 1.12 against Rotherham attack 0.79 / defence 0.98, drawn from 82/82 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 55% | Draw 23% | Rotherham 22%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Rotherham 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Rotherham's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.18 PPG, Rotherham 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Rotherham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights