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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Plymouth defy the odds to beat Peterborough 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat Peterborough 0-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.60 xG and Plymouth 1.19 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Peterborough fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.12 / defence 0.92 against Plymouth attack 1.17 / defence 1.05, drawn from 71/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 47% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 28%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 61%, Plymouth 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Plymouth's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.21 PPG, Plymouth 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights