Peterborough 2-1 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mansfield Town at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Mansfield Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Weston Homes Stadium plays host to Peterborough versus Mansfield Town in League One, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 22 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Peterborough have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Peterborough have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Peterborough are significantly better at Weston Homes Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Mansfield Town (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Mansfield Town have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Mansfield Town have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Mansfield Town are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Peterborough, 2 for Mansfield Town and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Mansfield Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 57% versus Mansfield Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 55% | Mansfield Town 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.25 xG and Mansfield Town 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.089 / defence 1.031 | Mansfield Town attack 0.959 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.291. Data: 47 Peterborough games / 47 Mansfield Town games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Peterborough 36% | Draw 27% | Mansfield Town 37%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Mansfield Town 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mansfield Town at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 70% | Mansfield Town 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (47 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 36% | Draw 27% | Mansfield Town 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Peterborough 1.25 / Mansfield Town 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.089 / def 1.031 | Mansfield Town attack 0.959 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Mansfield Town xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Peterborough vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Mansfield Town?
Peterborough 2 - 1 Mansfield Town.
Where is Peterborough vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Mansfield Town part of?
Peterborough vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 36% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Peterborough and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Mansfield Town?
Record (4 meetings): Peterborough 1W | Draws 1 | Mansfield Town 2W.
What form are Peterborough and Mansfield Town in?
Peterborough (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Mansfield Town (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 1.09x the league average against Mansfield Town's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (0.96x) against Peterborough's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
The sample (47/47 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
36%
2.78
27%
3.72
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.52
1.28
Mansfield Town xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
10%
9.98
11%
9.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.2 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.28 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Peterborough come into this having played 47 games, going 15W 8D 24L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Peterborough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Mansfield Town sit at 1.45 PPG from 47 outings (17W 17D 13L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Mansfield Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Peterborough against 1.45 for Mansfield Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Peterborough's home form reads 8W 6D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Mansfield Town have taken 1.30 points per game from 23 outings (7W 9D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Peterborough are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.36 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 47 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Early Season
Mansfield Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 15W 8D 24L in their last 47 games (1.13 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 17W 17D 13L in their last 47 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Mansfield Town away?
Peterborough's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.30 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mansfield Town won 0-3 on 26 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Peterborough
1
Draws
2
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Mansfield Town?
From 5 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 2, Mansfield Town have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Peterborough 2-1 Mansfield Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 56%, Mansfield Town 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Peterborough) and 35% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town in 35%; Peterborough have failed to score in 26% of games; Mansfield Town in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Mansfield Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Peterborough's recent matches and 52% of Mansfield Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Peterborough's recent games and 35% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Peterborough defy the odds to beat Mansfield Town 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Mansfield Town 2-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.25 xG and Mansfield Town 1.28 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.09 / defence 1.03 against Mansfield Town attack 0.96 / defence 0.84, drawn from 47/47 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 36% | Draw 27% | Mansfield Town 37%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Peterborough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 55%, Mansfield Town 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.13 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.