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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lincoln run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Peterborough.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lincoln beat Peterborough 0-3 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 0.99 xG and Lincoln 1.11 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Peterborough fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Lincoln outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 0.84 / defence 1.09 against Lincoln attack 0.95 / defence 0.82, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 32% | Draw 30% | Lincoln 38%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Lincoln 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Lincoln's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.05 PPG, Lincoln 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights