Peterborough 1-1 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Lincoln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Lincoln travel to Weston Homes Stadium to take on Peterborough. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Peterborough stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Peterborough have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lincoln — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lincoln have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lincoln's away record: 8W 2D 0L from 10 road trips in League One this season (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.60 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lincoln are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Peterborough register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lincoln in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Peterborough have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while Lincoln have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Peterborough a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Peterborough in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Lincoln in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 62% versus Lincoln 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 66% | Lincoln 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.11 xG and Lincoln 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 0.951 / defence 1.235 | Lincoln attack 1.204 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.171. Lincoln have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Peterborough games / 50 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 24% | Draw 24% | Lincoln 52%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | Lincoln 1.92. Lincoln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Peterborough dominate the H2H record, yet Lincoln are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Lincoln are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lincoln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 60% | Lincoln 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 24% | Draw 24% | Lincoln 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Peterborough 1.11 / Lincoln 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 0.951 / def 1.235 | Lincoln attack 1.204 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Lincoln xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Lincoln kick off?
Peterborough vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Lincoln?
Peterborough 1 - 1 Lincoln.
Where is Peterborough vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Lincoln part of?
Peterborough vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 24% chance of winning, Lincoln a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Peterborough and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Lincoln?
Record (4 meetings): Peterborough 3W | Draws 1 | Lincoln 0W.
What form are Peterborough and Lincoln in?
Peterborough (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Lincoln (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 0.95x the league average against Lincoln's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lincoln's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
24%
4.14
24%
4.23
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.85
1.74
Lincoln xG
4.14
24%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
18%
5.71
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
4%
23.61
17%
5.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.74 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Peterborough's recent record stands at 25W 10D 15L from 50 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Peterborough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lincoln, meanwhile, have gone 23W 14D 13L across 50 games — 1.66 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lincoln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Peterborough on 1.70 PPG, Lincoln on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Peterborough have managed 12W 6D 7L from 25 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lincoln's away record stands at 12W 7D 6L across 25 trips, a 1.72 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Peterborough are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.48 scored and 0.90 conceded. Peterborough's scoring rate against Lincoln's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lincoln in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Early Season
Lincoln
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 25W 10D 15L in their last 50 games (1.70 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 23W 14D 13L in their last 50 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Lincoln away?
Lincoln's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.68 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Lincoln in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Peterborough and Lincoln runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lincoln have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2022, when Peterborough won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Peterborough's record when hosting Lincoln specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Peterborough
2
Draws
3
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Lincoln?
From 8 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 3, Lincoln have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Lincoln 5-2 Peterborough.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 60%, Lincoln 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Peterborough) and 36% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Lincoln in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Lincoln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Peterborough's recent matches and 48% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 72% of Peterborough's recent games and 36% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Lincoln tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Peterborough and Lincoln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough and Lincoln finished level at 1-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.11 xG and Lincoln 1.74 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 0.95 / defence 1.24 against Lincoln attack 1.20 / defence 0.89, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 24% | Draw 24% | Lincoln 52%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 66%, Lincoln 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Lincoln's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.70 PPG, Lincoln 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.