Peterborough vs Leicester – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Peterborough at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Leicester fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Weston Homes Stadium plays host to Peterborough versus Leicester in League One, Regular Season - 43. Kick-off: Saturday 24 April 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Peterborough's overall League One record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Peterborough have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Peterborough's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Weston Homes Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Peterborough are significantly better at Weston Homes Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Leicester have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Leicester have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Leicester's form when playing away from home: 1W 7D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Leicester arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Peterborough have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Leicester in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Peterborough — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Leicester — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Peterborough 56% and Leicester 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 56% | Leicester 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.30 xG and Leicester 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 0.925 / defence 0.912 | Leicester attack 0.697 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.273. Data: 50 Peterborough games / 4 Leicester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 47% | Draw 32% | Leicester 22%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Leicester 4.55. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Leicester (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. This conflicts with form data: Peterborough 70% | Leicester 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Leicester | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 47% | Draw 32% | Leicester 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Peterborough 1.30 / Leicester 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 0.925 / def 0.912 | Leicester attack 0.697 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Leicester xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Leicester kick off?
Peterborough vs Leicester is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at Weston Homes Stadium.
Where is Peterborough vs Leicester being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Leicester part of?
Peterborough vs Leicester is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Leicester?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 47% chance of winning, Leicester a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Leicester?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Peterborough and Leicester will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Leicester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Leicester?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Peterborough and Leicester in?
Peterborough (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Leicester (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 0.93x the league average against Leicester's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Leicester's attack (0.70x) against Peterborough's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 50/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
47%
2.14
32%
3.17
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.11
0.81
Leicester xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
6%
16.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Peterborough and 0.81 for Leicester, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Leicester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 16W 9D 25L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Peterborough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Leicester's form line: 13W 18D 19L from 50 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Leicester, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Peterborough against 1.14 for Leicester. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.36 PPG from 25 outings (9W 7D 9L).
On the road, Leicester have gone 5W 11D 9L from 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Peterborough are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Leicester are on 1.24 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester in 70%.
Last 50 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Early Season
Leicester
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Leicester in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 16W 9D 25L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while Leicester have gone 13W 18D 19L in their last 50 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Leicester away?
Peterborough's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.36 PPG; Leicester away: 1.04 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 56%, Leicester 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Peterborough) and 52% (Leicester).
On the defensive side: Peterborough have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Leicester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Leicester?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Peterborough's games and 72% of Leicester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Peterborough vs Leicester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Peterborough's recent games and 52% of Leicester's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Leicester tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Leicester in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.