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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Peterborough and Exeter City share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Peterborough and Exeter City finished level at 3-3 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.55 xG and Exeter City 1.09 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Exeter City outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.26 / defence 1.03 against Exeter City attack 0.94 / defence 0.87, drawn from 79/77 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 48% | Draw 25% | Exeter City 27%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Exeter City 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Exeter City's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.19 PPG, Exeter City 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Exeter City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights