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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Doncaster cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Peterborough.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Doncaster beat Peterborough 1-3 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.87 xG and Doncaster 1.02 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Peterborough fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Doncaster outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.20 / defence 1.06 against Doncaster attack 0.82 / defence 1.15, drawn from 91/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 57% | Draw 22% | Doncaster 20%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Doncaster win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 59%, Doncaster 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Doncaster's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Doncaster arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Peterborough (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Doncaster (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights