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Dominant Peterborough run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Charlton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Peterborough beat Charlton 3-0 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.25 xG and Charlton 1.37 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Charlton landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.14 / defence 1.15 against Charlton attack 1.06 / defence 0.86, drawn from 82/83 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 34% | Draw 27% | Charlton 39%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Peterborough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 64%, Charlton 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Charlton's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.49 PPG, Charlton 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights