Peterborough 3-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 38 as Peterborough welcome Charlton to Weston Homes Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 March 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Peterborough have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Peterborough's home record at Weston Homes Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 League One matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Charlton have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Charlton are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Peterborough, 1 for Charlton and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with Charlton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Peterborough in-play tendencies (83 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Charlton in-play tendencies (83 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Peterborough 64% and Charlton 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 64% | Charlton 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.25 xG and Charlton 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.144 / defence 1.151 | Charlton attack 1.059 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.122. Data: 82 Peterborough games / 83 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 34% | Draw 27% | Charlton 39%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Charlton 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Peterborough 60% | Charlton 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 34% | Draw 27% | Charlton 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Peterborough 1.25 / Charlton 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.144 / def 1.151 | Charlton attack 1.059 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Charlton (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Charlton xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Charlton kick off?
Peterborough vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 March 2025 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Charlton?
Peterborough 3 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Peterborough vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Charlton part of?
Peterborough vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 34% chance of winning, Charlton a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Peterborough and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Charlton?
Record (5 meetings): Peterborough 2W | Draws 2 | Charlton 1W.
What form are Peterborough and Charlton in?
Peterborough (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Charlton (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 1.14x the league average against Charlton's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 82/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
34%
2.97
27%
3.69
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.62
1.37
Charlton xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
9%
11.68
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.37 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Peterborough's recent record stands at 35W 19D 29L from 83 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 30W 29D 24L across 83 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Peterborough on 1.49 PPG, Charlton on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Peterborough have managed 19W 11D 11L from 41 games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 10W 16D 15L across 41 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Peterborough are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.36 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Charlton in 60%.
Last 83 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Charlton in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 35W 19D 29L in their last 83 games (1.49 PPG), while Charlton have gone 30W 29D 24L in their last 83 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Charlton away?
Peterborough's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.66 PPG; Charlton away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Peterborough and Charlton runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Mar 2025, when Peterborough won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Peterborough's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Peterborough
2
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Charlton?
From 6 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 3, Charlton have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2025, when Peterborough 3-0 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Charlton?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 66%, Charlton 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Peterborough) and 42% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Charlton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Peterborough's games and 58% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Peterborough vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Peterborough's recent games and 42% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Charlton tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Charlton in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Peterborough run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Charlton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Charlton 3-0 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.25 xG and Charlton 1.37 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Charlton landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.14 / defence 1.15 against Charlton attack 1.06 / defence 0.86, drawn from 82/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 34% | Draw 27% | Charlton 39%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Peterborough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 64%, Charlton 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Charlton's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.49 PPG, Charlton 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.