Peterborough 1-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 2 as Peterborough welcome Charlton to Weston Homes Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 August 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Peterborough have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Peterborough have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Peterborough's home record at Weston Homes Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Weston Homes Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Charlton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Charlton have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Peterborough 1.90 PPG, Charlton 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Peterborough's 30% rate and Charlton's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Peterborough, 0 for Charlton and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Peterborough in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Charlton in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 40% versus Charlton 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 57% | Charlton 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.40 xG and Charlton 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.002 / defence 1.046 | Charlton attack 1.017 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.074. Data: 47 Peterborough games / 47 Charlton games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Peterborough 43% | Draw 26% | Charlton 31%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Charlton 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Peterborough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Peterborough 30% | Charlton 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (47 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 43% | Draw 26% | Charlton 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Peterborough 1.40 / Charlton 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.002 / def 1.046 | Charlton attack 1.017 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Charlton xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Charlton kick off?
Peterborough vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Charlton?
Peterborough 1 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Peterborough vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Charlton part of?
Peterborough vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 43% chance of winning, Charlton a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Peterborough and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Charlton?
Record (2 meetings): Peterborough 0W | Draws 2 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Peterborough and Charlton in?
Peterborough (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Charlton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 1.00x the league average against Charlton's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (47/47 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
43%
2.33
26%
3.78
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.54
1.14
Charlton xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
8%
13.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.14 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Peterborough's recent record stands at 24W 5D 18L from 47 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Peterborough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 16L across 47 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Peterborough on 1.64 PPG, Charlton on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Peterborough have managed 13W 4D 6L from 23 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 7W 7D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Peterborough are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.51 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Early Season
Charlton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Charlton in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 24W 5D 18L in their last 47 games (1.64 PPG), while Charlton have gone 17W 14D 16L in their last 47 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Charlton away?
Peterborough's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.87 PPG; Charlton away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Charlton in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Peterborough and Charlton runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Mar 2025, when Peterborough won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Peterborough's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Peterborough
2
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Charlton?
From 6 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 3, Charlton have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2025, when Peterborough 3-0 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Charlton?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 35%, Charlton 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Peterborough) and 48% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Peterborough have failed to score in 35% of games; Charlton in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Peterborough's recent matches and 52% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Peterborough's recent games and 48% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Charlton tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Charlton in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Peterborough edge out Charlton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Charlton 1-0 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.40 xG and Charlton 1.14 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charlton landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.00 / defence 1.05 against Charlton attack 1.02 / defence 1.06, drawn from 47/47 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 43% | Draw 26% | Charlton 31%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 57%, Charlton 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charlton's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.64 PPG, Charlton 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.