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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Peterborough and Cardiff share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Peterborough and Cardiff finished level at 1-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.97 xG and Cardiff 1.68 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Peterborough fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.45 / defence 1.09 against Cardiff attack 1.40 / defence 0.97, drawn from 85/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 45% | Draw 22% | Cardiff 33%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Cardiff 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (85 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Cardiff's trading profile (85 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.19 PPG, Cardiff 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights