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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Peterborough and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 44, as Peterborough and Burton Albion drew 1-1 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.73 xG and Burton Albion 1.05 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.30 / defence 1.15 against Burton Albion attack 0.78 / defence 0.96, drawn from 88/89 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 53% | Draw 24% | Burton Albion 23%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Burton Albion 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (88 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Burton Albion's trading profile (88 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.16 PPG, Burton Albion 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights