🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Peterborough and Bradford share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Peterborough and Bradford finished level at 1-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 0.91 xG and Bradford 1.08 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 0.76 / defence 1.12 against Bradford attack 0.89 / defence 0.93, drawn from 50/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 30% | Draw 31% | Bradford 39%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Bradford 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Bradford's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights