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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Peterborough cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bolton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Peterborough beat Bolton 3-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.32 xG and Bolton 0.86 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.02 / defence 0.91 against Bolton attack 0.86 / defence 0.95, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 47% | Draw 28% | Bolton 24%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Bolton 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Bolton's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.19 PPG, Bolton 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. Bolton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights