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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Peterborough and Bolton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 45, as Peterborough and Bolton drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.92 xG and Bolton 1.51 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Peterborough fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.12 / defence 1.21 against Bolton attack 1.05 / defence 1.36, drawn from 89/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 47% | Draw 22% | Bolton 30%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 64%, Bolton 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Bolton's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.48 PPG, Bolton 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights