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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Blackpool defy the odds to beat Peterborough 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Blackpool beat Peterborough 1-2 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.11 xG and Blackpool 0.89 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Blackpool outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 0.81 / defence 1.21 against Blackpool attack 0.68 / defence 1.04, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 40% | Draw 31% | Blackpool 29%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Blackpool win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Blackpool 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Blackpool's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.05 PPG, Blackpool 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackpool win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights