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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Barnsley edge out Peterborough 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Barnsley beat Peterborough 0-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.32 xG and Barnsley 1.68 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Peterborough fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 0.86 / defence 1.19 against Barnsley attack 1.30 / defence 1.11, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 29% | Draw 26% | Barnsley 45%, with Barnsley to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 61%, Barnsley 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Barnsley's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.04 PPG, Barnsley 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Barnsley win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Barnsley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights