Peterborough vs AFC Wimbledon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees AFC Wimbledon travel to Weston Homes Stadium to take on Peterborough. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 March 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Peterborough stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 League One matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough at Weston Homes Stadium this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, AFC Wimbledon have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, AFC Wimbledon have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Peterborough at 0.70 PPG versus AFC Wimbledon's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Peterborough have won 1, AFC Wimbledon 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Peterborough in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
AFC Wimbledon in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 58% versus AFC Wimbledon 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 54% | AFC Wimbledon 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.50 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 0.775 / defence 1.145 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.796 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.239. Peterborough's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Peterborough's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Peterborough games / 59 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 43% | Draw 30% | AFC Wimbledon 26%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | AFC Wimbledon 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Peterborough as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Peterborough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Peterborough 60% | AFC Wimbledon 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Mar 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 43% | Draw 30% | AFC Wimbledon 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Peterborough 1.50 / AFC Wimbledon 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 0.775 / def 1.145 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.796 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.13
AFC Wimbledon xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Peterborough vs AFC Wimbledon is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Friday 26 March 2027 at Weston Homes Stadium.
Where is Peterborough vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Peterborough vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 43% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Peterborough and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (2 meetings): Peterborough 1W | Draws 1 | AFC Wimbledon 0W.
What form are Peterborough and AFC Wimbledon in?
Peterborough (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (0.78) and AFC Wimbledon's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
43%
2.30
30%
3.31
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.63
1.13
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
6%
17.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Peterborough and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.13 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Peterborough come into this having played 59 games, going 17W 12D 30L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AFC Wimbledon sit at 1.12 PPG from 59 outings (18W 12D 29L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Peterborough on 1.07 PPG, AFC Wimbledon on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Peterborough's home form reads 9W 8D 12L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Wimbledon have taken 1.00 points per game from 29 outings (8W 5D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
Peterborough are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.02 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 59 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 17W 12D 30L in their last 59 games (1.07 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 18W 12D 29L in their last 59 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Peterborough's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.21 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Peterborough
1
Draws
0
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and AFC Wimbledon?
From 2 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 1, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 1-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and AFC Wimbledon?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 55%, AFC Wimbledon 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Peterborough) and 62% (AFC Wimbledon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Peterborough have failed to score in 31% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Peterborough's recent matches and 52% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Peterborough's matches and 62% of AFC Wimbledon's.
Do Peterborough and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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