🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Peterborough run riot with a 5-0 hammering of AFC Wimbledon.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Peterborough beat AFC Wimbledon 5-0 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.20 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.52 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AFC Wimbledon landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 0.83 / defence 1.31 against AFC Wimbledon attack 1.08 / defence 1.12, drawn from 59/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 30% | Draw 25% | AFC Wimbledon 44%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Peterborough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 61%, AFC Wimbledon 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, AFC Wimbledon arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Peterborough winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights